Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
| Money | STMN +208 MTST -257 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STMN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +7 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | STMN -4.5 (-11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.7 (-18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -2.7 (-9.7) | 148.1 (-11.1) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -2.2 (-9.2) | 151.1 (-14.1) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -2.7 (-9.7) | 150.1 (-13.1) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -2.5 (-9.5) | 150.2 (-13.2) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2025 | MTST 82 – 74 STMN |
| Dec 9, 2022 | MTST 82 – 65 STMN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STMN | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 16-4 |
| Home | 5-8 | 13-1 |
| Away | 3-12 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.2 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#141) | 2.1 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#248) | 0.55 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#248) | 0.58 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#243) | 0.554 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STMN | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 40.3% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 21.9% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 15.0% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.0% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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