Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | MTST -135 STMN +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +8 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -9.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -4.4 (+3.6) | 140.4 (+15.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -4.3 (+3.7) | 140.6 (+15.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -4.2 (+3.8) | 141.0 (+15.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -4.3 (+3.7) | 141.3 (+14.7) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 9, 2022 | MTST 82 – 65 STMN |
| Dec 12, 2021 | MTST 72 – 65 STMN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-4 |
| Home | 11-2 | 14-1 |
| Away | 6-11 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 73.1 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#113) | 0.3 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#253) | 1.09 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#238) | 1.25 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#146) | 0.535 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 28.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 5.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 17.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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