Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Montana State Bobcats
82 74
FINAL Big Sky-Summit Challenge
St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies
Worthington Arena · December 4, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread MTST -2.5 Home covered
O/U 147.5 Over
Money MTST -135 / STMN +114
Model Predictions
Spread Total MTST win
Actual MTST +8 156 Won
Massey MTST -9.0 (-1.0)
Massey Totals 141.9 (+14.1)
Bradley-Terry 27%
Weighted B-T 24%
Efficiency Plus ML MTST -4.4 (+3.6) 140.4 (+15.6) 66%
Baseline Tuned ML MTST -4.3 (+3.7) 140.6 (+15.4) 64%
Baseline ML MTST -4.2 (+3.8) 141.0 (+15.0) 67%
Baseline Plus ML MTST -4.3 (+3.7) 141.3 (+14.7) 68%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 9, 2022 MTST 8265 STMN
Dec 12, 2021 MTST 7265 STMN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MTST STMN
Overall 18-14 24-10
Conference 12-6 12-4
Home 11-2 14-1
Away 6-11 8-7
Neutral 0-1 2-2
Last 5 1-4 4-1
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 75.7 80.9
Avg Pts Against 73.5 73.1
Massey 4.3 (#113) 0.3 (#164)
Bradley-Terry -1.01 (#253) 1.09 (#102)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.16 (#238) 1.25 (#114)
RPI 0.518 (#146) 0.535 (#120)
Shooting & Four Factors MTST STMN
FG% 45.2% 46.6%
3PT% 31.6% 30.0%
REB / G 32.2 28.8
OREB / G 8.5 5.9
AST / TO 0.78 1.51
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.9% 53.6%
TOV% 16.5% 14.2%
ORB% 24.8% 17.8%
FT Rate 16.9% 22.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.8% 53.4%
Opp TOV% 15.4% 19.7%
DRB% 72.1% 73.2%
Opp FT Rate 29.2% 21.4%

Game Analysis

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