Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
| Money | MTST -330 STMN +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +17 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -2.2 (+14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -4.1 (+12.9) | 140.6 (+6.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -3.5 (+13.5) | 145.9 (+1.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -3.0 (+14.0) | 146.1 (+0.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -3.5 (+13.5) | 143.6 (+3.4) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2025 | MTST 82 – 74 STMN |
| Dec 12, 2021 | MTST 72 – 65 STMN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-1 | 12-2 |
| Away | 10-5 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#197) | 2.2 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#167) | 0.87 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#158) | 0.60 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#207) | 0.527 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 40.9% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 57.8% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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