Betting Lines
| Spread | FGCU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FGCU +11 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | FGCU -4.6 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -6.2 (-4.8) | 151.0 (+8.0) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -5.8 (-5.2) | 149.9 (+9.1) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -4.9 (-6.1) | 151.5 (+7.5) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -4.0 (-7.0) | 151.5 (+7.5) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RMU | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#323) | -0.2 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.18 (#354) | 0.96 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.95 (#355) | 0.74 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.340 (#348) | 0.537 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RMU | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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