Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
| Money | BAY -215 VILL +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +21 | 93 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -6.1 (+14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.5 (-44.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -8.4 (+12.6) | 138.1 (-45.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | BAY -6.8 (+14.2) | 133.4 (-40.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | BAY -8.1 (+12.9) | 137.6 (-44.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -8.9 (+12.1) | 137.4 (-44.4) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 27, 2021 | BAY 62 – 51 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 16-4 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-1 |
| Away | 8-3 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 62.7 |
| Massey | 19.4 (#5) | 18.1 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.33 (#3) | 2.16 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.11 (#2) | 3.35 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#32) | 0.622 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 39.2% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 15.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 41.2% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 15.6% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.2% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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