Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | BAY -300 VILL +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +11 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -5.9 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-35.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -5.4 (+5.6) | 145.8 (-32.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -4.4 (+6.6) | 139.4 (-26.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -4.7 (+6.3) | 143.2 (-30.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -5.2 (+5.8) | 143.6 (-30.6) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 12, 2021 | BAY 57 – 36 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-2 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 13-1 | 11-4 |
| Home | 11-0 | 9-0 |
| Away | 7-1 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.9 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 21.5 (#2) | 15.5 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.25 (#2) | 2.59 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.12 (#2) | 3.31 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#3) | 0.616 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 41.5% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.9% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.7% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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