Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +5 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | VT -3.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -0.5 (+5.5) | 131.5 (-12.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -0.9 (+5.9) | 127.3 (-8.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -0.6 (+4.4) | 132.5 (-13.5) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -0.6 (+4.4) | 132.1 (-13.1) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2022 | VT 77 – 49 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-6 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.2 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#95) | 12.7 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#156) | 1.39 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#206) | 2.35 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#183) | 0.550 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 40.5% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 15.6% |
Game Analysis
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