Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +12 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | LIB -2.7 (+14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.1 (-17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -1.9 (+13.9) | 131.4 (-17.4) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -3.5 (+15.5) | 137.1 (-23.1) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -2.5 (+14.5) | 136.6 (-22.6) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -2.3 (+14.3) | 135.1 (-21.1) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#185) | 2.5 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#125) | 0.12 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#160) | -0.37 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#99) | 0.498 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.5% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.5% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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