Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -21.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +40 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | TENN -23.3 (+16.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.4 (-18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -16.8 (+23.2) | 133.5 (-21.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -19.4 (+20.6) | 137.5 (-25.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -20.5 (+19.5) | 137.2 (-25.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -22.9 (+17.1) | 136.8 (-24.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TENN | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 16-0 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.9 | 65.1 |
| Massey | 15.9 (#12) | -2.5 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#39) | 0.32 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.25 (#37) | 0.12 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#36) | 0.484 (#205) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TENN | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 43.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 12.4% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 79.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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