Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +16 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -14.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.8 (+20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -10.2 (+5.8) | 135.3 (+8.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -11.0 (+5.0) | 132.9 (+11.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -11.0 (+5.0) | 132.6 (+11.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -9.7 (+6.3) | 133.6 (+10.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | MSU 76 – 72 PSU |
| Jan 16, 2025 | MSU 90 – 85 PSU |
| Feb 14, 2024 | MSU 80 – 72 PSU |
| Jan 5, 2024 | MSU 92 – 61 PSU |
| Dec 7, 2022 | MSU 67 – 58 PSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 7-13 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 65.0 |
| Massey | 14.2 (#19) | 4.2 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.57 (#8) | 0.43 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.25 (#9) | 0.77 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.722 (#2) | 0.546 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 41.6 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.8% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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