Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +4 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -1.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -1.7 (+2.3) | 125.7 (+8.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -2.0 (+2.0) | 130.0 (+4.0) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -1.1 (+2.9) | 131.1 (+2.9) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -1.6 (+2.4) | 129.0 (+5.0) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-8 | 11-4 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 61.6 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#242) | 0.6 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#251) | 0.32 (#155) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#231) | 0.08 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#268) | 0.513 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 29.6 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 15.6% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.1% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 78.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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