Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +6 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | MSM -9.7 (-15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -5.6 (-11.6) | 138.0 (+0.0) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -4.8 (-10.8) | 138.8 (-0.8) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -6.5 (-12.5) | 140.5 (-2.5) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -7.2 (-13.2) | 139.9 (-1.9) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 19, 2025 | MSM 83 – 72 AMER |
| Nov 22, 2023 | AMER 68 – 65 MSM |
| Dec 7, 2022 | AMER 69 – 61 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-7 | 6-5 |
| Away | 6-11 | 4-16 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.4 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.4 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#297) | -12.4 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#268) | -1.61 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#280) | -2.22 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#236) | 0.378 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.3% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 13.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 58.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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