We are like Greeks. We are like Romans. / Centaurs and monkeys just cluster 'round us "Nemesis" - Shriekback
Knott Arena · December 11, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread MSM -6.0 Away covered
O/U 130.0 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total MSM win
Actual AMER +6 138 Lost
Massey MSM -9.7 (-15.7)
Massey Totals 138.2 (-0.2)
Bradley-Terry 78%
Weighted B-T 79%
Baseline ML MSM -7.2 (-13.2) 139.9 (-1.9) 73%
Baseline Plus ML MSM -5.6 (-11.6) 138.0 (+0.0) 70%
Efficiency Plus ML MSM -4.8 (-10.8) 138.8 (-0.8) 62%
Baseline Tuned ML MSM -6.5 (-12.5) 140.5 (-2.5) 74%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 19, 2025 MSM 8372 AMER
Nov 22, 2023 AMER 6865 MSM
Dec 7, 2022 AMER 6961 MSM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MSM AMER
Overall 14-16 10-22
Conference 9-9 5-13
Home 8-7 6-5
Away 6-11 4-16
Neutral 0-0 0-1
Last 5 1-4 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 64.4 63.5
Avg Pts Against 65.4 70.9
Massey -7.6 (#297) -12.4 (#338)
Bradley-Terry -1.20 (#268) -1.61 (#294)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.90 (#280) -2.22 (#293)
RPI 0.460 (#236) 0.378 (#332)
Shooting & Four Factors MSM AMER
FG% 39.7% 43.9%
3PT% 31.5% 32.1%
REB / G 30.9 31.2
OREB / G 9.1 8.7
AST / TO 0.79 1.01
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 44.3% 48.9%
TOV% 21.6% 18.8%
ORB% 26.1% 24.1%
FT Rate 23.6% 13.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.9% 58.1%
Opp TOV% 17.7% 17.1%
DRB% 69.8% 71.0%
Opp FT Rate 20.7% 20.0%

Game Analysis

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