Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | MSM -163 AMER +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +8 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | MSM -6.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -4.2 (-12.2) | 131.8 (-1.8) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -4.4 (-12.4) | 129.9 (+0.1) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -3.1 (-11.1) | 136.2 (-6.2) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -3.4 (-11.4) | 136.6 (-6.6) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 19, 2025 | MSM 83 – 72 AMER |
| Nov 22, 2023 | AMER 68 – 65 MSM |
| Dec 11, 2021 | AMER 72 – 66 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-9 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-10 | 9-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.8 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 65.9 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#154) | 0.7 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#168) | 0.58 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#158) | 0.31 (#157) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#191) | 0.507 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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