Really don't mind if you sit this one out. "Thick as a Brick" - Jethro Tull
Knott Arena · December 7, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread MSM -3.5 Away covered
O/U 127.5 Over
Money MSM -163 / AMER +170
Model Predictions
Spread Total MSM win
Actual AMER +8 130 Lost
Massey MSM -6.0 (-14.0)
Massey Totals 133.4 (-3.4)
Bradley-Terry 66%
Weighted B-T 78%
Baseline ML MSM -3.4 (-11.4) 136.6 (-6.6) 63%
Baseline Plus ML MSM -4.2 (-12.2) 131.8 (-1.8) 64%
Efficiency Plus ML MSM -4.4 (-12.4) 129.9 (+0.1) 69%
Baseline Tuned ML MSM -3.1 (-11.1) 136.2 (-6.2) 63%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 19, 2025 MSM 8372 AMER
Nov 22, 2023 AMER 6865 MSM
Dec 11, 2021 AMER 7266 MSM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MSM AMER
Overall 13-20 17-15
Conference 8-12 7-11
Home 5-9 8-6
Away 7-10 9-9
Neutral 1-1 0-0
Last 5 3-2 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 63.8 65.4
Avg Pts Against 67.9 65.9
Massey 1.4 (#154) 0.7 (#171)
Bradley-Terry 0.16 (#168) 0.58 (#134)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.31 (#158) 0.31 (#157)
RPI 0.492 (#191) 0.507 (#168)
Shooting & Four Factors MSM AMER
FG% 41.4% 48.3%
3PT% 38.1% 36.6%
REB / G 36.1 31.9
OREB / G 12.5 8.6
AST / TO 0.96 1.04
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.3% 54.7%
TOV% 20.7% 20.2%
ORB% 33.8% 29.0%
FT Rate 21.8% 17.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.3% 50.3%
Opp TOV% 18.8% 19.7%
DRB% 66.8% 71.5%
Opp FT Rate 23.2% 24.8%

Game Analysis

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