(16)
American University
Eagles
72
–
83
FINAL
Neutral
NCAA Tournament
(16)
Mount St. Mary's
Mountaineers
Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | AMER -140 MSM +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +11 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | AMER -0.1 (-11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (+23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -1.0 (-12.0) | 129.5 (+25.5) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -0.4 (-10.6) | 129.7 (+25.3) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -0.1 (-11.1) | 129.4 (+25.6) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -0.4 (-11.4) | 129.3 (+25.7) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 22, 2023 | AMER 68 – 65 MSM |
| Dec 7, 2022 | AMER 69 – 61 MSM |
| Dec 11, 2021 | AMER 72 – 66 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#247) | -5.0 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#195) | -0.06 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#209) | -0.48 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#124) | 0.522 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.