But where the fuck is the waitress at with my drinks! "Stand Up" - Ludacris
Bender Arena · November 22, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread AMER -4.5 Away covered
O/U 135.5 Under
Money AMER -175 / MSM +180
Model Predictions
Spread Total AMER win
Actual AMER +3 133 Won
Massey AMER -7.9 (-4.9)
Massey Totals 151.9 (-18.9)
Bradley-Terry 90%
Weighted B-T 94%
Baseline ML AMER -5.2 (-2.2) 145.2 (-12.2) 70%
Baseline Plus ML AMER -5.5 (-2.5) 143.2 (-10.2) 68%
Efficiency Plus ML AMER -4.3 (-1.3) 142.9 (-9.9) 64%
Baseline Tuned ML AMER -5.1 (-2.1) 144.7 (-11.7) 67%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 19, 2025 MSM 8372 AMER
Dec 7, 2022 AMER 6961 MSM
Dec 11, 2021 AMER 7266 MSM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings AMER MSM
Overall 16-16 13-19
Conference 10-8 9-11
Home 8-7 8-5
Away 8-9 5-13
Neutral 0-0 0-1
Last 5 2-3 1-2
Streak L2 L2
Avg Pts For 67.6 72.7
Avg Pts Against 67.8 71.8
Massey -6.2 (#290) -6.5 (#295)
Bradley-Terry -1.79 (#306) -2.40 (#337)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.89 (#310) -3.59 (#334)
RPI 0.377 (#309) 0.251 (#355)
Shooting & Four Factors AMER MSM
FG% 43.5% 42.0%
3PT% 32.6% 25.5%
REB / G 33.4 35.7
OREB / G 10.8 12.3
AST / TO 1.31 0.82
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.0% 45.6%
TOV% 16.9% 21.3%
ORB% 30.9% 33.6%
FT Rate 19.9% 18.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 57.4% 48.8%
Opp TOV% 17.8% 20.8%
DRB% 74.3% 68.6%
Opp FT Rate 27.4% 28.7%

Game Analysis

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