Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | AMER -175 MSM +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +3 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -7.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (-18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -5.5 (-2.5) | 143.2 (-10.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -4.3 (-1.3) | 142.9 (-9.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -5.1 (-2.1) | 144.7 (-11.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -5.2 (-2.2) | 145.2 (-12.2) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 19, 2025 | MSM 83 – 72 AMER |
| Dec 7, 2022 | AMER 69 – 61 MSM |
| Dec 11, 2021 | AMER 72 – 66 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-11 |
| Home | 8-7 | 8-5 |
| Away | 8-9 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -6.2 (#290) | -6.5 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#306) | -2.40 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.89 (#310) | -3.59 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.377 (#309) | 0.251 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 25.5% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.4% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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