Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +4 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | ARIZ -10.3 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -4.2 (+0.2) | 154.1 (+7.9) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -3.0 (-1.0) | 156.6 (+5.4) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -3.6 (-0.4) | 154.9 (+7.1) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -5.8 (+1.8) | 158.5 (+3.5) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 33-4 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 18-2 |
| Home | 13-3 | 17-0 |
| Away | 7-4 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 84.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#34) | 26.4 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#34) | 3.88 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.34 (#35) | 5.76 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.637 (#24) | 0.654 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 43.6 | 44.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 41.5% | 38.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 39.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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