Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | VAN +170 LUC -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +11 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | LUC -5.2 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -3.4 (-7.6) | 131.7 (-4.7) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -1.6 (-9.4) | 135.5 (-8.5) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -2.3 (-8.7) | 134.9 (-7.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -1.8 (-9.2) | 134.7 (-7.7) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-17 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-8 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-8 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 61.9 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#100) | 14.4 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#165) | 2.15 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#156) | 3.00 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#177) | 0.596 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 50.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 41.1% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 59.2% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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