Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +21 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -8.9 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -7.0 (+14.0) | 131.1 (+7.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -7.5 (+13.5) | 131.5 (+7.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -8.8 (+12.2) | 133.0 (+6.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -9.0 (+12.0) | 131.5 (+7.5) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 17-11 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 8-5 |
| Home | 16-0 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-4 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.3 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#62) | 3.1 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#20) | -0.98 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.62 (#25) | -1.31 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#39) | 0.404 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 33.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 80.9% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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