Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLT +1 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | VAL -7.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -5.4 (-6.4) | 137.4 (-2.4) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -5.4 (-6.4) | 141.7 (-6.7) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -5.6 (-6.6) | 141.8 (-6.8) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -5.2 (-6.2) | 141.2 (-6.2) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#210) | -3.8 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#243) | 0.51 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#237) | -0.52 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#278) | 0.517 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 5.5 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 16.9% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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