Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SCST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SCST +1 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -5.8 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -4.0 (+5.0) | 148.0 (-15.0) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -4.7 (+5.7) | 142.7 (-9.7) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -4.4 (+5.4) | 143.8 (-10.8) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -4.2 (+5.2) | 149.3 (-16.3) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SCST | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Massey | -10.7 (#330) | -4.9 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.39 (#330) | -1.31 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.42 (#342) | -1.59 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.367 (#339) | 0.404 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SCST | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.9% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.4% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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