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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
8–3 on winners
spread MAE 7.7
11 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Purdue
@
Rutgers
|
-11.6 | 144.1 | 17% | 68–70 | ✗ |
Nicholls
@
Mississippi Valley State
|
-8.2 | 140.4 | 22% | 95–80 | ✓ |
Detroit Mercy
@
Kent State
|
+3.9 | 139.7 | 66% | 52–69 | ✓ |
Hampton
@
William & Mary
|
+1.2 | 128.8 | 46% | 54–53 | ✗ |
Long Island University
@
Fordham
|
+10.3 | 146.4 | 84% | 57–73 | ✓ |
Colgate
@
Pittsburgh
|
-0.6 | 141.5 | 47% | 68–71 | ✗ |
Monmouth
@
St. John's
|
+1.6 | 150.8 | 53% | 83–88 | ✓ |
Merrimack
@
Gonzaga
|
+24.0 | 138.7 | 91% | 55–80 | ✓ |
Iowa
@
Iowa State
|
+3.7 | 149.6 | 65% | 53–73 | ✓ |
Denver
@
New Mexico
|
+6.5 | 152.6 | 74% | 67–87 | ✓ |
Grand Canyon
@
Arizona State
|
+0.2 | 133.4 | 47% | 62–67 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.