Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +3 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | COLG -2.6 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -2.5 (+5.5) | 137.3 (+1.7) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -0.6 (+3.6) | 141.5 (-2.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -1.3 (+4.3) | 140.8 (-1.8) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -1.5 (+4.5) | 139.6 (-0.6) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 16-2 |
| Home | 9-11 | 15-1 |
| Away | 2-9 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#259) | 2.5 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#277) | -0.31 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#277) | -0.24 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#256) | 0.470 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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