Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +5 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -0.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.7 (+15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -1.6 (+3.4) | 150.8 (+20.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -3.9 (+1.1) | 150.9 (+20.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -2.1 (+2.9) | 152.3 (+18.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -2.1 (+2.9) | 152.3 (+18.7) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.6 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#91) | 9.2 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#139) | 2.85 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#106) | 3.97 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#178) | 0.612 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 43.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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