Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +5 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | ASU -0.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -0.4 (+4.6) | 132.4 (-3.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -0.5 (+4.5) | 134.0 (-5.0) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -0.2 (+4.8) | 133.4 (-4.4) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -0.7 (+5.7) | 131.6 (-2.6) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2024 | ASU 87 – 76 GCU |
| Dec 13, 2020 | ASU 71 – 70 GCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 23-8 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 62.0 |
| Massey | 0.0 (#172) | 4.4 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#225) | 1.99 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#218) | 2.62 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#190) | 0.510 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 41.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 14.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 40.7% |
| FT Rate | 15.3% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 43.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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