Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | GCU +320 ASU -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +1 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | GCU -5.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (-16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -5.0 (-6.0) | 153.5 (-12.5) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -4.8 (-5.8) | 151.5 (-10.5) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -5.6 (-6.6) | 150.9 (-9.9) | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -5.7 (-6.7) | 150.7 (-9.7) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2024 | ASU 87 – 76 GCU |
| Dec 10, 2021 | ASU 67 – 62 GCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-7 | 11-14 |
| Conference | 9-3 | 7-10 |
| Home | 10-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 5-1 | 2-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 77.1 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#104) | 4.0 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#69) | 1.25 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#86) | 2.31 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#66) | 0.557 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 45.7 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 39.2% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 80.2% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.6% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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