Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | ASU +195 GCU -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +11 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | ASU -9.6 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (+13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -3.0 (+8.0) | 145.7 (+17.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -4.6 (+6.4) | 142.1 (+20.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -4.5 (+6.5) | 142.7 (+20.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -5.0 (+6.0) | 145.1 (+17.9) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2021 | ASU 67 – 62 GCU |
| Dec 13, 2020 | ASU 71 – 70 GCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 13-3 |
| Home | 5-9 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#97) | -5.2 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#143) | 0.56 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#142) | 0.62 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#86) | 0.500 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 37.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.5% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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