Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +20 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -1.0 (+21.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-26.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -4.2 (+15.8) | 151.9 (-25.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -2.3 (+17.7) | 143.6 (-17.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -3.7 (+16.3) | 149.6 (-23.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -4.2 (+15.8) | 149.7 (-23.7) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 12, 2025 | ISU 66 – 62 IOWA |
| Dec 13, 2024 | ISU 89 – 80 IOWA |
| Dec 8, 2023 | ISU 90 – 65 IOWA |
| Dec 9, 2022 | IOWA 75 – 56 ISU |
| Dec 12, 2020 | IOWA 105 – 77 ISU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-5 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.5 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#40) | 15.8 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.49 (#1) | 1.50 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.64 (#2) | 1.88 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#40) | 0.538 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 2.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 11.0% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.2% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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