Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -13.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | IOWA -1200 ISU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +28 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -25.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.7 (+26.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -23.7 (+4.3) | 157.0 (+25.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -18.5 (+9.5) | 158.5 (+23.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -19.2 (+8.8) | 153.4 (+28.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -22.4 (+5.6) | 153.3 (+28.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 12, 2025 | ISU 66 – 62 IOWA |
| Dec 13, 2024 | ISU 89 – 80 IOWA |
| Dec 8, 2023 | ISU 90 – 65 IOWA |
| Dec 9, 2022 | IOWA 75 – 56 ISU |
| Dec 10, 2021 | ISU 73 – 53 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-9 | 2-22 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 0-18 |
| Home | 14-2 | 2-10 |
| Away | 6-4 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L18 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.7 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 15.5 (#9) | -3.8 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#41) | -0.90 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.13 (#31) | -1.55 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#93) | 0.423 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 40.2% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 43.8 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.32 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 7.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 24.8% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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