Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | ISU -333 IOWA +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +25 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -11.1 (+13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.7 (-7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -9.4 (+15.6) | 151.1 (+3.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -10.9 (+14.1) | 155.6 (-0.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -9.8 (+15.2) | 155.2 (-0.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -8.7 (+16.3) | 156.5 (-1.5) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 12, 2025 | ISU 66 – 62 IOWA |
| Dec 13, 2024 | ISU 89 – 80 IOWA |
| Dec 9, 2022 | IOWA 75 – 56 ISU |
| Dec 10, 2021 | ISU 73 – 53 IOWA |
| Dec 12, 2020 | IOWA 105 – 77 ISU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-10 |
| Home | 18-0 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.5 | 79.4 |
| Massey | 18.2 (#7) | 12.5 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#110) | 1.72 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#105) | 2.76 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#165) | 0.603 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.77 | 2.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 12.0% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.1% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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