Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | IOWA +200 ISU -240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +9 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | ISU -3.9 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -2.0 (-11.0) | 155.9 (+13.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -1.3 (-7.7) | 155.4 (+13.6) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -0.2 (-9.2) | 156.6 (+12.4) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -0.4 (-9.4) | 155.4 (+13.6) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 12, 2025 | ISU 66 – 62 IOWA |
| Dec 8, 2023 | ISU 90 – 65 IOWA |
| Dec 9, 2022 | IOWA 75 – 56 ISU |
| Dec 10, 2021 | ISU 73 – 53 IOWA |
| Dec 12, 2020 | IOWA 105 – 77 ISU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 13-7 |
| Home | 12-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.5 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 10.7 (#50) | 19.0 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#36) | 3.42 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.90 (#22) | 5.48 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#42) | 0.605 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 50.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.81 | 1.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.9% | 57.2% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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