Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | IOWA -175 ISU +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +19 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -5.8 (+13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -5.8 (+13.2) | 142.7 (-11.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -5.2 (+13.8) | 140.0 (-9.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -4.9 (+14.1) | 138.1 (-7.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -5.0 (+14.0) | 137.5 (-6.5) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 12, 2025 | ISU 66 – 62 IOWA |
| Dec 13, 2024 | ISU 89 – 80 IOWA |
| Dec 8, 2023 | ISU 90 – 65 IOWA |
| Dec 10, 2021 | ISU 73 – 53 IOWA |
| Dec 12, 2020 | IOWA 105 – 77 ISU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 62.6 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#27) | 11.8 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#62) | 3.03 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.29 (#63) | 4.60 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#41) | 0.616 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.93 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 43.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 30.3% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.6% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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