Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -14.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +20 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -8.3 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -7.2 (+12.8) | 149.0 (+5.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -6.5 (+13.5) | 152.6 (+1.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -7.7 (+12.3) | 153.6 (+0.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -7.1 (+12.9) | 150.3 (+3.7) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 5-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-7 | 6-7 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#150) | -2.4 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#131) | -1.49 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#123) | -2.15 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#115) | 0.433 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 29.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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