Free Nelson Mandela! "Nelson Mandela" - The Specials
The Pit · December 10, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread UNM -14.0 Home covered
O/U 144.0 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNM win
Actual UNM +20 154 Won
Massey UNM -8.3 (+11.7) — —
Massey Totals — 157.8 (-3.8) —
Bradley-Terry — — 95% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 98% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UNM -7.2 (+12.8) 149.0 (+5.0) 77% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML UNM -6.5 (+13.5) 152.6 (+1.4) 74% ✓
Baseline ML UNM -7.7 (+12.3) 153.6 (+0.4) 73% ✓
Baseline Plus ML UNM -7.1 (+12.9) 150.3 (+3.7) 73% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNM DEN
Overall 13-19 11-21
Conference 5-12 7-11
Home 11-7 6-7
Away 2-9 4-12
Neutral 0-3 1-2
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 73.7 70.6
Avg Pts Against 76.7 74.8
Massey 1.1 (#150) -2.4 (#222)
Bradley-Terry 0.57 (#131) -1.49 (#286)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.87 (#123) -2.15 (#289)
RPI 0.542 (#115) 0.433 (#277)
Shooting & Four Factors UNM DEN
FG% 44.1% 45.0%
3PT% 36.7% 36.1%
REB / G 32.5 29.1
OREB / G 9.5 6.9
AST / TO 0.99 0.86
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.6% 51.8%
TOV% 15.7% 20.7%
ORB% 24.6% 22.1%
FT Rate 29.1% 23.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.4% 50.9%
Opp TOV% 21.1% 21.3%
DRB% 65.5% 69.3%
Opp FT Rate 26.3% 24.0%

Game Analysis

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