Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RUTG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RUTG +2 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -18.9 (+20.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -11.2 (+13.2) | 140.5 (-2.5) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -11.6 (+13.6) | 144.1 (-6.1) | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -15.4 (+17.4) | 144.0 (-6.0) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -14.0 (+16.0) | 142.8 (-4.8) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | PUR 81 – 65 RUTG |
| Mar 5, 2025 | PUR 100 – 71 RUTG |
| Jan 9, 2025 | PUR 68 – 50 RUTG |
| Feb 23, 2024 | PUR 96 – 68 RUTG |
| Jan 28, 2024 | PUR 68 – 60 RUTG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RUTG | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#204) | 22.5 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#232) | 4.06 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#188) | 5.87 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#205) | 0.655 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RUTG | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 53.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.7% | 44.0% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 42.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.5% | 62.2% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 39.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 13.9% |
Game Analysis
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