The juice of the carrot, the smile of the parrot / A little drop of claret - anything that rocks "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–16 on winners spread MAE 10.0 52 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UConn @ West Virginia -2.6 144.8 37% 53–56 ✗
North Florida @ Florida +19.9 136.6 91% 55–85 ✓
Indiana @ Wisconsin +6.3 139.3 77% 59–64 ✓
Alabama A&M @ North Alabama +9.5 135.7 82% 45–56 ✓
Samford @ Alabama State -1.5 155.3 40% 74–64 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Western Carolina +3.1 145.7 62% 69–74 ✓
Wofford @ Gardner-Webb +2.8 140.1 61% 78–70 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Boston University +6.2 136.4 74% 62–72 ✓
Saint Francis @ American University -7.2 152.9 26% 73–83 ✗
Lafayette @ Delaware +11.7 144.5 86% 58–68 ✓
Wagner @ Penn State -2.7 129.7 33% 54–74 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ St. Bonaventure +10.0 137.3 83% 71–84 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Saint Joseph's +5.1 145.1 70% 71–78 ✓
Hofstra @ Stony Brook -1.2 149.2 43% 62–79 ✗
Lipscomb @ Miami +4.8 154.8 71% 59–76 ✓
Jacksonville State @ VCU +9.3 127.5 78% 52–66 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Dartmouth +5.9 142.2 73% 72–69 ✗
Holy Cross @ Fairfield +17.3 146.7 91% 59–74 ✓
Marist @ Binghamton +2.4 141.7 59% 64–51 ✗
Canisius @ Northern Kentucky +3.5 140.7 64% 62–75 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Saint Peter's +9.8 133.1 81% 71–60 ✗
Niagara @ Eastern Michigan -0.4 141.3 47% 58–60 ✗
Central Michigan @ Youngstown State +16.0 145.5 89% 77–84 ✓
Missouri State @ Little Rock -5.4 147.1 29% 81–55 ✓
Evansville @ Southeast Missouri State +1.1 143.0 58% 73–75 ✓
New Hampshire @ Bryant -2.9 137.3 35% 59–76 ✗
Arkansas State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -1.2 142.0 39% 84–73 ✓
Buffalo @ Western Kentucky +1.6 155.9 54% 77–67 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ SIU Edwardsville +4.3 144.7 66% 59–80 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Colorado +7.8 153.7 77% 57–60 ✓
Utah @ TCU -2.1 133.7 41% 62–76 ✗
McNeese @ Louisiana +6.7 141.5 73% 68–83 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +8.9 156.1 82% 69–75 ✓
Dayton @ SMU +2.6 140.6 56% 69–77 ✓
UMBC @ Georgetown -0.2 151.5 49% 71–100 ✗
Michigan State @ Minnesota +1.2 132.1 60% 75–67 ✗
Towson @ Ohio State +9.2 141.8 80% 74–85 ✓
Utah State @ BYU +8.7 144.6 78% 71–82 ✓
Air Force @ Montana +0.2 132.2 47% 48–66 ✓
Marquette @ Kansas State +7.1 142.8 74% 64–63 ✗
South Dakota State @ Idaho -10.3 164.8 17% 84–98 ✗
Utah Valley @ Southern Utah +1.5 148.9 52% 56–60 ✓
Cornell @ Virginia Tech +10.3 146.8 80% 60–93 ✓
Drake @ Omaha -10.4 137.9 17% 78–70 ✓
Wyoming @ Arizona +13.8 149.3 84% 65–94 ✓
Weber State @ Washington State +6.8 139.4 68% 60–94 ✓
Seattle U @ UNLV +0.1 142.9 49% 56–76 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ San Diego State +6.2 130.3 72% 56–66 ✓
Idaho State @ California +12.9 131.0 87% 46–72 ✓
Fresno State @ San Francisco +10.3 132.6 81% 63–71 ✓
Texas @ Seton Hall +5.7 136.5 68% 60–64 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ NC State +12.1 148.5 87% 48–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.