Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -12.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +26 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | MOST -8.6 (-17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (-12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -8.7 (-17.3) | 144.7 (-8.7) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -5.4 (-20.6) | 147.1 (-11.1) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -5.0 (-21.0) | 147.7 (-11.7) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -6.5 (-19.5) | 148.0 (-12.0) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2020 | MOST 85 – 77 LR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-19 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 3-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 6-7 | 12-4 |
| Away | 1-10 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#315) | 4.0 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#239) | -0.87 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#262) | -0.60 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#203) | 0.419 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 25.6% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.1% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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