Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 121.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +18 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | AF -1.2 (+19.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -3.1 (+14.9) | 129.3 (-15.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -4.4 (+13.6) | 126.1 (-12.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -0.2 (+17.8) | 132.2 (-18.2) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -0.1 (+17.9) | 133.2 (-19.2) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 27, 2022 | AF 59 – 56 MONT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 4-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-10 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 59.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 66.0 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#287) | -1.1 (#199) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#212) | 0.84 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#165) | 0.40 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#208) | 0.473 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 26.0 | 29.6 |
| OREB / G | 4.9 | 5.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 57.9% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 14.5% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.