Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Under |
| Money | AF -120 MONT +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +3 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | AF -6.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -4.0 (-1.0) | 129.7 (-14.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -2.5 (+0.5) | 127.7 (-12.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -4.3 (-1.3) | 132.6 (-17.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AF -5.0 (-2.0) | 133.2 (-18.2) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 9, 2021 | MONT 66 – 48 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-7 |
| Home | 10-9 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#267) | -4.3 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#287) | 0.27 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#278) | 0.92 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.379 (#322) | 0.500 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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