Betting Lines
| Spread | KSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +1 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | KSU -5.8 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (-16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KSU -3.9 (-4.9) | 142.9 (-15.9) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KSU -7.1 (-8.1) | 142.8 (-15.8) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | KSU -6.7 (-7.7) | 142.9 (-15.9) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KSU -7.3 (-8.3) | 144.4 (-17.4) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 11-8 |
| Home | 9-7 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#82) | 4.5 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#57) | 2.38 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.17 (#45) | 2.69 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#162) | 0.652 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.7% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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