Betting Lines
| Spread | EMU -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EMU +2 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | NIA -2.4 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (-21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EMU -0.3 (+1.7) | 138.8 (-20.8) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -1.2 (+3.2) | 140.3 (-22.3) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -0.4 (+2.4) | 141.3 (-23.3) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -0.6 (+2.6) | 141.1 (-23.1) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2022 | NIA 67 – 60 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EMU | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 9-11 |
| Home | 8-7 | 7-4 |
| Away | 2-14 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 66.0 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#241) | 3.5 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#226) | -0.13 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#187) | -0.44 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#165) | 0.521 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EMU | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 19.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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