Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 121.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +26 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -18.2 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -15.3 (+10.7) | 125.1 (-7.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -12.9 (+13.1) | 131.0 (-13.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -13.7 (+12.3) | 129.7 (-11.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -13.8 (+12.2) | 128.7 (-10.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 5-15 |
| Home | 10-8 | 5-8 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#176) | -13.5 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#187) | -4.21 (#356) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#169) | -6.40 (#358) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#159) | 0.304 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 27.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 79.6% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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