Betting Lines
| Spread | SUU -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SUU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SUU +4 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | UVU -0.9 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (-32.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SUU -1.6 (+2.4) | 148.0 (-32.0) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SUU -1.5 (+2.5) | 148.9 (-32.9) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SUU -1.3 (+2.7) | 150.7 (-34.7) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SUU -0.8 (+3.2) | 150.6 (-34.6) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UVU 92 – 88 SUU |
| Jan 22, 2026 | SUU 84 – 70 UVU |
| Jan 9, 2026 | UVU 89 – 72 SUU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UVU 100 – 59 SUU |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UVU 70 – 68 SUU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SUU | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-3 | 11-2 |
| Away | 8-8 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 65.7 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#167) | 6.1 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#116) | 2.04 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#122) | 2.48 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#153) | 0.577 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SUU | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 41.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 14.4% |
Game Analysis
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