Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -14.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +15 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -23.3 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (-14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -15.4 (-0.4) | 139.2 (-6.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -17.3 (-2.3) | 146.7 (-13.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -18.0 (-3.0) | 145.6 (-12.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -18.4 (-3.4) | 141.7 (-8.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-9 | 5-9 |
| Away | 8-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#119) | -15.6 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#137) | -3.46 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#154) | -4.89 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#133) | 0.317 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 44.1% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 56.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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