Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +17 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -6.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.7 (-24.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -8.1 (+8.9) | 149.9 (-14.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -4.8 (+12.2) | 154.8 (-19.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -5.6 (+11.4) | 151.7 (-16.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -8.7 (+8.3) | 151.0 (-16.0) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#141) | -0.2 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#120) | 0.51 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#147) | 0.52 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#101) | 0.517 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 50.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 43.2% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 4.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 58.6% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 16.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 35.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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