Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +20 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | SEA -0.7 (+20.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -2.8 (+17.2) | 140.7 (-8.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -0.1 (+19.9) | 142.9 (-10.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -0.8 (+19.2) | 144.5 (-12.5) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -0.5 (+19.5) | 143.5 (-11.5) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 23-9 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-4 | 17-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 67.5 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#254) | 0.8 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#193) | -0.63 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#191) | -1.17 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#137) | 0.418 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.0% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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