Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
| Money | VCU -340 JXST +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +14 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -10.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 116.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -8.7 (+5.3) | 127.9 (-9.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -9.3 (+4.7) | 127.5 (-9.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -9.3 (+4.7) | 126.9 (-8.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -9.1 (+4.9) | 131.4 (-13.4) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#76) | 0.7 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#81) | -0.92 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#71) | -1.27 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#46) | 0.435 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 42.4% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 24.7% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.3% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.3% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 62.0% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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