Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -24.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +17 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -16.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (-37.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -14.6 (+2.4) | 144.1 (-31.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -12.1 (+4.9) | 148.5 (-35.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -12.3 (+4.7) | 149.7 (-36.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -11.8 (+5.2) | 147.3 (-34.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-10 | 4-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 62.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#142) | -9.7 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#115) | -1.47 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#103) | -1.95 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#142) | 0.456 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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