Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +13 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | NKU -5.3 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -3.9 (+9.1) | 138.9 (-1.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -3.5 (+9.5) | 140.7 (-3.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -4.0 (+9.0) | 140.1 (-3.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -3.9 (+9.1) | 140.9 (-3.9) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-13 |
| Home | 12-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 7-7 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#275) | -6.6 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#300) | -1.90 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.59 (#303) | -2.89 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#278) | 0.452 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.3% | 37.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 15.2 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 37.9% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.6% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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