Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +20 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | WAG -5.5 (+25.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -0.8 (+20.8) | 127.4 (+0.6) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -2.7 (+22.7) | 129.7 (-1.7) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -2.1 (+22.1) | 130.7 (-2.7) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -2.7 (+22.7) | 128.3 (-0.3) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 21-6 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 15-3 |
| Home | 10-5 | 13-1 |
| Away | 1-10 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.0 | 65.4 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#131) | 12.3 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#200) | 2.62 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#207) | 3.88 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#150) | 0.604 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 12.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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