Betting Lines
| Spread | OSU -14.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OSU +11 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | OSU -10.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (+18.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OSU -13.1 (-2.1) | 138.4 (+20.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OSU -9.2 (+1.8) | 141.8 (+17.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OSU -8.5 (+2.5) | 142.3 (+16.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OSU -8.5 (+2.5) | 140.7 (+18.3) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OSU | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 11-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 62.4 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#34) | 5.5 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.48 (#32) | 0.88 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.67 (#32) | 1.56 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.686 (#5) | 0.514 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OSU | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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