Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +33 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | VT -11.3 (+21.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -12.1 (+20.9) | 147.0 (+6.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -10.3 (+22.7) | 146.8 (+6.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -10.9 (+22.1) | 146.0 (+7.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -12.3 (+20.7) | 147.7 (+5.3) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | COR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 15-11 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 7-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-2 |
| Away | 7-6 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#32) | 4.6 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#80) | 0.88 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#61) | 0.53 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#119) | 0.504 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | COR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 41.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 16.0% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.8% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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